This first day of 2021, the numbers tell the story. At just over 600 miles to Cap Horn this morning the two leaders Yannick Bestaven (Maître Coq IV) and Charlie Dalin (Apivia) have just completed 24 hour runs of 452 and 417 nautical miles respectively. Only third placed Thomas Ruyant (LinkedOut) has come close with 375 miles. All of the chasing group have made less than 300 after their tussle with lighter winds yesterday. That means Bestaven and Dalin have the biggest lead over third since the start.
Dogged, determined Dalin is very much in touch and has never conceded a mile lightly to his rival and on the early morning ranking Apivia is quicker than Maître Coq IV. The duo have managed to stay in the powerful N to NW’ly flow but the chasing peloton did not. And it must have been frustrating to have been stuck in a relatively windless bubble when to the north and east it is blowing over 30 knots. And with the wind having moved from NW to S to SW swells will be big and confused in places for this group.
The leaders are in on the front of a Southern Ocean depression which approaches the Chilean coast, ready to hit the mountains of Tierra del Fuego. Only Yannick Bestaven and Dalin are be able to take advantage of it on its eastern side. They will see more than 40 knots but at 120 ° to the wind, they will rein in their IMOCAs to account for the mountainous boat breaking seas which are likely on the approach to Cape Horn.
Routings suggest Dalin will line up behind Bestaven on the approach to Cape Horn on Saturday evening (European time) and be only a few hours apart at the Cape. Meantim Thomas Ruyant in third is jousting with the centre of the low and will have to dive SE in an easing, dropping breeze which will shift all the way to the S.
He should cross comfortably in front of Damien Seguin (APICIL Group) who has done well to gain nearly a hundred miles over Boris Herrmann, Benjamin Dutreux, Jean Le Cam and Isabelle Joschke. As the climb away from the Antarctic Exclusion Zone they will accelerated on the western side of the system. But Louis Burton (Bureau Vallée 2) and Giancarlo Pedote (Prysmian Group) are doing well in the north, already behind the system and able to go fast.
Further behind Clarisse Crémer, Armel Tripon and Romain Attanasio came back very strongly in this south-westerly breeze of 25 to 35 knots which should carry them all the way to Cape Horn!
The rest of the fleet stretches from the middle of the Pacific (Alan Roura) to the heart of the Indian (Sébastien Destremau) and all have moderate to strong breezes, bringing in 2021 in the Southern Oceans.