Pip Hare writes......
It's 4am and I am, sitting staring at my computer screen, trying to make some sense of this Atlantic weather for the umpteenth time today.
Sailing in the Southern Ocean was tough for many reasons, but the navigation was reasonably straight forwards. The ice limit gave us a boundary to the South and we made our way from west to east, weaving our way north or south to keep in a steady flow of 'goldilocks wind' not too much, not too little but just right. The weather in the Atlantic does not seem quite so straight forwards. With the objective now to head north, it means crossing weather systems rather than riding with them and all of a sudden things are looking a lot more complicated.
At the moment I am heading north working my way across the strong flow of westerly wind generated by a high pressure system that sits to the north of me. I've had to split from my Southern ocean gang. I couldn't hold on to them speed wise in these conditions and my stop to laminate a repair that would make my rudder water tight cost me four hours of easting which combined with the speed deficit was enough to properly split me from the gang. I am now totally alone, I must find my own route to the north. It's actually the first time in several weeks that I have not had a competitor in close proximity and sailing roughly the same route as me.
The next week is looking head scratchingly difficult and which ever way I go there will be challenges; strong winds, no wind. I am nervous to make the right navigational decision and no matter how much I stare at the screen, plotting my theoretical routes to the east and the west, no magic pathway is appearing before me. My computer screen is bright with colour from the many routes I have generated, manipulating the data to send me one way or the other. One thing to remember is that my software does not care about me, it would send me through the most hideous conditions if it thought it would be quick.
At this stage in the race more than ever i need to think about eliminating risk, preserving myself and the boat and back off from my competitive nature a bit to look at the long goal. This morning it has become pretty clear that my strategy for the next couple of days needs to be to sail safe and smart, not to go chasing after boats i should not be with on the race track anyway.
There is a small low pressure system developing to the west of me just over 24hrs. Yesterday it looked like I might squeeze ahead of it without too much wind. But today it's not the case. If I carry on in the quickest route to the finish I might encounter winds of over 50 knots as the front from that system passes over me. That is not a good idea for anyone. So I need to sail smart and avoid this system which will mean later today I tack and sail to the west, away from the finish line, so that i can pass through the centre of the low pressure system and avoid the worst of the winds.
Of course it hurts, but right now I am thinking of the finish. I have just over 6000 miles to sail, it's close and yet there is so much that could happen to stop me from getting there. It's time to sail smart. Another bitter pill but i will swallow it gladly if it gets me and Medallia to the finish.